Conservative Home is carrying a very interesting piece by a Conservative Councillor on the threat posed by UKIP. Is this an indication of the Tories finally waking up to the UKIP threat and the start of something more?

What Happened In Ramsey? This is going to be the question which gets asked amongst strategists, particularly Cambridgeshire Conservative ones, over the next few weeks. The By-Election held there last week delivered a “surprise” (I wasn’t particularly surprised, but I suspect others will be) at both District and County levels when UKIP stomped home with a double win. On paper, Ramsey should be a Conservative seat.  The Lib Dems have always provided a respectable opposition.  But times, as Mr. Dylan used to say, they are a-changin’.  The scary thing as far as I’m concerned is that far too few of my fellow Conservatives seem to appreciate just what this threat actually means and just how serious it is becoming.

Well the fact of the matter is that Pete Reeve was a phenomenal candidate who politicians of all parties would have had difficulty in beating. The Conservatives certainly don;t seem to be taking th threat seriously, as evidenced by the fact this “surprise” was a long time coming. Effort put into the ward of many months has finally produced this result. It is not an accident, or protest, but good old fashioned politics.

I’ve been challenging this received wisdom for a while, but my arguments fall on deaf ears.  It is true that many UKIP supporters’ natural home is the Conservative party and that some will vote with us at a general election.  The rest of the supposition is wishful thinking which belongs firmly in the “sticking head in sand” school of political discourse.

Yep, we get lots of Tory votes. We also get lots of Labour votes. In fact in Labour areas we get an awful lot of Labour votes. So don’t assume if UKIP was disbanded that voters would flock to the Conservative party.

Conservative leaders hope that the rise of UKIP is a temporary phenomenon – that it will wither away over time.  I don’t believe that is the case.  The fact of the matter is that there is only one party who can overturn their relentless growth – the same party who is suffering as their core membership dissolves away. The Conservatives.

The UKIP rise is not a temporayr phenomenan. True, the Conservative could have put a stop to UKIP, but I now doubt their ability to. I think UKIP is passing a tipping point beyond which it cannot be swatted by the Tories changing policy. It is now too deep rooted. This is something the political class (westminster & media) do not understand.

Politicians of all colours better watch out at the next General Election. UKIP are hot on your heels.