Well, not Adam Smith, obviously, but the Adam Smith Institute blog. Steve Bettison gives his analysis of UKIP’s performance at the election…

A lot has been written over the rise of the BNP due to their success at the European elections last week. There have also been discussions surrounding Labour’s apparent demise and falling support. All the while the party that pushed Labour into 3rd place seems to have slipped under everyone’s radar. UKIP supporters are crowing about how successful they were, pushing Labour into third and increasing the number of their MEPs by 1. But they were another group that benefitted from the disappearance of the Labour Party’s core voters.

Well undoubtedly UKIP did benefit from the anti-politician vote, but I do not believe it was a significant factor. It was perhaps responsible for 1%-2% vote share nationally, but hardly significant. It would therefore represent around 250,000 votes, meaning that the eurosceptic vote UKIP managed to mobilise was around the 2m mark. Considering UKIP got 2.65m votes in 2004, this represents a drop, though also in 2004 there was a large anti-politician protest sentiment, assisted by Kilroy.

Overall UKIP’s total number of votes fell by 8.6% but then this is probably reflective of a falling turnout.  If you examine their vote across the regions it varies from a drop of 44.9% in the East Midlands to a 19.5% gain in the West Midlands (where they gained the extra MEP).  The party only managed to gain supporters in 5 regions and the majority of those gains were below 6%. Their losses were heavier, three of them being above 18%. It is difficult to see where they can improve on the numbers who are voting for them, despite this election proving to be a fillip for them. In these politically apathetic times  they are facing stiff competition from smaller/newer parties that are also anti-federalist. It is unlikely that we will see any increase on the 6% of the electorate who voted for them in the 2004 European election. Indeed if they deemed that a success one only has to look at the next election for the UK parliament where they only polled 2.2% of the votes, or 22% of the actual total number of voters from 12 months previously.

So UKIP votes did shrink nationally, in part due to turnout, in part to UKIP performance since 2004 and in part from smaller parties. It is certainly true than the Labour vote didn’t so much stay at home but rather wander to other parties, including the BNP, Greens and UKIP.

As for the general election, it is well understood that First Past The Post elections are treated differently by the public. They vote tactically and less for smaller parties. That is not an insignificant number of votes, an under a system of proportional representation would translate into around 20 MPs.

While many supporters of UKIP will see last week as a success the figures point to a party that has possibly reached it’s zenith. But there still remains a hope for them, the continuing ignorance of the populace by the professional politicians of the day. Despite the citizens of the EU delivering a firm ‘no’ to the federalist leaning politicians they continue to call for more integration, as seen by yesterday’s announcements by Peter Mandleson. UKIP’s continued success depends on this blinkered idiocy to continue.

To take a small drop in the total number of votes cast, especially when national share of the vote remained static indicating drop in line with turnout, as a sign that a party has reached its zenith is ridiculous. Parties will go up and go down and back up again. Politics is turbulent and ever changing and does not consist of a relentless march to Downing Street and then final obliteration to make way for the next.

Yes it is true that the arrogance and contempt of politicians, and their transparent failure to listen to the will of the people and push ahead with European integration in spite of popular opinion, is a large factor in UKIP support. However 55% of the British people stated support for the policy of cooperation and free trade with Europe in place of political union – the policy UKIP espouses.

So it would rather seem that UKIP’s support base is somewhat larger than the 2.65m who voted for us in 2004. 55% of the total electorate is around 25m. Of those bothering to vote at the 2005 General Election it is around 14m, and certainly more than the 9.5m votes the Labour party needed for a majority in the House of Commons.

UKIP has a lot of work to do. In fact i think it is fair to say that if UKIP remains the same party it is today then it may well be the case that 2.65m votes was its zenith. However, if UKIP continues to change and pursue its current direction of development then it is by no means near its peak.